Maritime Forecast to 2050

The push for decarbonization is accelerating and the more ambitious scenarios see a mix of carbon-neutral fuels only.

Big cargo owners have already set more ambitious targets for decarbonisation and expect low- and zero-emission shipping services to be in place this decade.

Already by 2030, 5% of the energy for shipping should come from carbon-neutral fuels.

The carbon-neutral fuels dominating the energy mix in 2050 are likely to be bio-MGO, and bio-LNG, e-ammonia and blue ammonia, and bio-methanol.

In Decarbonization by 2050 scenarios, all fossil fuels are eliminated. Grid electricity provides around 7-8% of total energy, while 92-93% comes from carbon-neutral fuels.

The decarbonization by 2050 scenarios require about 2,5 times as much carbon-neutral fuel, with about 2,5 times the capital needed for investments on-shore.

In the scenarios aiming for Decarbonization by 2050 the share of drop-in fuels decreases and the need for investments in ammonia and methanol technology increases.

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